Build an issue tree for why a tuition centre's enrolment is falling

A tuition centre owner sees fewer new students each term and keeps trying random fixes. The question is how to break 'falling enrolment' into separate causes that together cover everything, rank the likely ones, and name a test for the top three before anyone spends money.

• Is the fall in enquiries, in enquiries turning into joins, or in students leaving early?
• How will you make sure no cause sits on two branches at once?
• Which hypotheses are likely given what you know, and which are just possible?
• What one question to a parent or the owner would test each of the top three?

An issue tree at least three levels deep, split first into fewer enquiries, fewer joins and more leavers, with no overlaps, a ranked hypothesis list, and a test for each of the top three hypotheses.

Making a long list of reasons instead of a tree. A list mixes levels and overlaps; a tree splits each branch into parts that do not overlap and together cover the whole.

• A short conversation with a tuition centre owner or teacher about what has changed, with permission
• Anything the centre already tracks, such as an enquiry register or attendance book, if they share it
• One or two conversations with parents or students about how they chose a centre

AI must not invent enrolment numbers or say which cause is true. Hypotheses stay hypotheses until a real owner, parent or record tests them.

1. 3.1 Draft the first level yourselfCLAUDE CHAT

   Why this tool: A quick critique of your first split catches overlaps before the tree grows.

   Write the three first branches and two sub-branches under each. Ask Claude to find overlaps and gaps.

   Prompt to copy · fill in the [brackets]Copy

   I am building an issue tree for 'new enrolment at a tuition centre is falling'. My branches are:
   [paste your branches]
   Find any two branches that overlap, and any cause that fits no branch. Explain each issue in one line. Do not rebuild the tree for me.

2. 3.2 Grow the tree to three levelsCLAUDE SKILLS

   Why this tool: A saved Skill applies the same 'no overlap, no gap' check every time you extend a branch.

   Save a short Skill with your rules for a good branch. Run it on each branch as you extend it to the third level, and read every change it proposes.

   Prompt to copy · fill in the [brackets]Copy

   Skill instructions: When I give you one branch of an issue tree, check that its sub-branches do not overlap and together cover the branch. List any overlap or gap, suggest at most two fixes, and ask me before changing anything. Never state which cause is true. The branch is: [paste one branch].

   Before you let it act: Read each suggested fix before accepting it, and keep the tree in your own document so the Skill only suggests changes rather than overwriting your work.

3. 3.3 Rank hypotheses and write testsCLAUDE CHAT

   Why this tool: Questioning helps you rank by evidence and design tests a small centre can run.

   List your hypotheses with what you heard so far, rank them, then ask for help writing a test question for the top three.

   Prompt to copy · fill in the [brackets]Copy

   Here are my hypotheses for falling enrolment, with what I heard from the owner and parents:
   [paste hypotheses and evidence]
   For my top three, suggest one question I could ask a parent or the owner that would make the hypothesis more or less likely. Tell me what answer would weaken each one.

• The first level splits into enquiries, joins and leavers, or a split you can defend as complete
• No cause appears in two places in the tree
• Each top hypothesis has a test that a real person could answer
• The ranking mentions what you heard, not only what seems likely
• Walk the map with someone who does the work
• Every step has an owner

AI tends to produce a long flat list of causes such as 'online competition' and 'fees too high' with overlapping items, and presents likely-sounding causes as if they were confirmed.

• An issue tree three levels deep
• No overlaps or gaps that you know of
• Hypotheses ranked with reasons
• A test for each of the top three

Draw the tree left to right on one page, highlight the top three hypotheses, and put their tests in a small table underneath.

Show how your first draft of the tree changed after you found an overlap, and which hypothesis moved most after a real conversation.